April 2026 Almond Market Report

Per April’s Position Report, California handlers shipped nearly 220 million pounds of almonds in April. Shipment volumes to both export and domestic markets fell YoY in April, with export shipments off -10.9% and domestic shipments off -1.3%. On net, shipment volumes on the crop year are behind -2.69% from a year ago.

As expected, total supply remains relatively unchanged behind -1.23% from a year ago. With April shipments lagging behind last year’s figure, computed inventory ticked up to +1.46% ahead of this time last year. New commitment volume in April also slowed compared to a year ago after four straight months of YoY growth nudging uncommitted inventory up to +4.19%.

Acreage

Land IQ in partnership with the California Almond Board released their annual Initial Estimate of standing almond acreage in California. Their report estimates 1,385,870 acres of bearing almonds in California. This represents a -1.1% decline in bearing acres from their 2025 Final Estimate - the first such instance where their reporting projected a decline in bearing acres year to year.

The decline in bearing acres follows years of accelerated orchard removals paired with slowing rates of new planting driven by years of compounding influences including: drought and persistent water availability concerns; increased input and labor costs; and farm returns below the cost of production. Our expectations are that the Industry will continue to see modest bearing acre decline over the next few years as many of these pressure points remain for California growers. This is going to continue to cap California almond production and limit and supply growth potential to what may materialize from seasonal variability. A return of drought conditions, or heightened pressures from any of these factors would only accelerate acreage declines in the coming years.

Forecasting 2026 Harvest

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) published their 2026 Crop Production Estimate inclusive of the 2026 Almond Subjective Forecast (page 8). While their acreage estimate is slightly different that that of Land IQ, their report also notes a modest -1.4% projected decline in bearing acres. The report projects a per acre yield matching the yield from last year resulting in a production forecast of 2.7 billion pounds. This is largely inline with sentiments we have heard from our grower community and the Industry seems to have coalesced around the expectation of a similar sized crop as last year.

Harvest is still several months away and much of the critical growing season remains. The likelihood of a strong El Nino pattern in the Pacific that we first noted in our February Market Report continues to be forecast with increasing likelihood and strength. This can have varying impacts to California including excessive and persistent summer heat, as well as, increased potential for moist monsoonal patterns that can bring thunderstorm activity and humidity to a usually dry growing season. In short, the extremes strong El Nino patterns can present additional challenges to growers through the growing season and into harvest reminding all of us that we still have a long way to go before assessing eventual crop yield.

A quick reminder to readers that the Industry will also be operating without an Objective Forecast this year so the Subjective Forecasts marks the only official crop estimate of the season. We will continue to provide insights from our growers and discuss industry expectations in our reports, but will do so without the added waypoint of the second forecast.

Export Markets

China and Southeast Asia

Shipments of kernel products saw a significant YoY increase in April more than doubling from a year ago. At the same time Southeast Asian markets were down nearly -12% in April compared to a year ago keeping overall volume roughly similar year to year - a trend we observed in our previous Market Report where volumes once destined for direct Chinese import were moving through value-add markets in Southeast Asia. What we'll be tracking in May is whether we continue to see more volume shift back towards direct transit to China as energy costs rise as Chinese based buyers may find less financial incentive to leverage value-added markets as input costs to do so increase. This will be something we continue to monitor as shipments into

April shipment figures would suggest that Chinese buyers continue to largely shun direct importation of inshell product from California. Again, we touched on this in our previous report, so this is nothing new. But we also observed seasonal spikes in inshell shipment volume in summer into fall as Chinese demand spikes. With the weather events that Australian growers experienced and the impacts particularly to inshell products, Chinese buyers are likely to be forced to rely on California handlers to a greater degree this year. To this end, our sales team is reporting strong interest from Chinese buyers, specifically for inshell and we're expecting an earlier and stronger seasonal shipment volume of inshell beginning in May.

Other influences on the horizon we're tracking include renewed optimism on bilateral talks between the US and China between their respective leaders. Improving trade relations between the countries could again alter Chinese supply chains and shift volume back towards direct importation though to what degree and whether conditions will change is all to be seen.

Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, and Singapore remain the primary beneficiaries of shifting supply chains from China. Vietnam and Malaysia both saw declines YoY in April but show strong growth on the crop year at +46% and 39% respectively. Thailand is up +25% and Singapore is up +15%. Because growth in these markets is largely attributed to Chinese demand, growth in these markets remains tied to the whims and needs of Chinese buyers. Buyers who have become savvy and adaptable to changing economic pressures. If elevated energy prices begin to erode fiscal benefits of leveraging SE Asian markets, Chinese buyers may well pivot some of their volume needs back to direct importation. This would boost Chinese shipment figures at the expense of those to the growth markets in the region.

The Middle East

The UAE has experienced the most significant impacts from commercial shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz and war in the region. Imports of almonds came to an effective standstill in April with volumes decreasing nearly -14.5 million pounds in April. For context, California handlers shipped fewer than -22 million pounds on net to all export markets in April highlighting the importance of this Middle Eastern market to the Industry at large.

Saudi Arabia, which has port access clear of the immediate conflict in its neighborhood, was already experiencing a decline in shipments for the crop year, though April volume was roughly equal to a year ago. Logistics networks are not sufficient to handle rerouted volumes destined for the UAE via trans-Saudi Arabia shipment, and would be costly, but we would not be surprised if some modest volume does begin to travel this way if commercial shipment through the Strait of Hormuz continues to be effectively cut off simply to provide some supply relief to local UAE markets. If and when normal shipping access is restored we’d expect elevated shipment volumes to the UAE as local markets refresh inventories.

Turkey remains a significant growth market in the Middle East with volume on the crop year exceeding 120 million pounds as of April’s report. Turkey is now the region's largest importer of California almonds and has firmly staked its claim as the third largest export market. Turkey's growth and development into a regional trading hub has been an ongoing trend and has positioned it to absorb additional business with disruptions to the UAE and Dubai. As wartime disruptions linger expect additional growth from this market.

India

India experienced a down volume month in April importing more than -14 million fewer almonds than a year ago (-31.3%). On the crop year, India is down -8%. India buyers now find themselves in an interesting situation. Inshell prices have steadily risen since late March after Australia experienced weather impacts causing widespread quality issues. At the same time a weakening Rupee has compounded these cost increases. This comes at a time when local consumption cycles through a seasonal decline, giving many importers flexibility to be cautious about brining in additional inventory at higher costs. Elevated shipping and fuel costs from war in the Middle East and a hope of a quick resolution may have also factored into traders' caution during April. Local inventories however are not sufficient to support a prolonged pause in importation and California may be facing its own tight inshell supply as it heads towards the transition. This will likely continue to put pressure on inshell prices through the summer.

Western Europe

Western Europe was down -18.7% YoY in April after seeing significant growth in March. For the crop year the region is up +3% led by strong growth from its largest market Spain, which is up +17% on the crop year. Italy and the Netherlands continue to vie for the title of second largest EU market with Italy currently holding a modest 2 million pound lead on a +7% growth rate on the crop year. Germany is not that far behind, itself growing at a +4% rate.

Market Analysis

Market observers were looking to the release of the Subjective Forecast for added context for supply side expectations into next year. The forecast came on the heels of other industry estimates that were expressing expectations of future volume at or slightly below volumes harvested this year. The USDA figure largely validates that expectation and should help narrow consensus around a 2.65-2.7 billion pound estimate for forward crop.

This consensus largely supports the market status quo. Handlers will continue to target a carry forward around 550 million pounds to balance supply needs through harvest and monthly shipment volumes have continually fallen in line with that expectation keeping handlers content not to overextend commitments.

As has been the theme of late, global markets have been generally purchasing hand to mouth and this pattern will likely continue as war in the Middle East presents uncertainty around shipping and fuel costs. This could influence some market fluctuations if certain markets exit simultaneously, but as we’ve regularly seen this year, the hand to mouth buying doesn’t afford buyers much flexibility to remain patient for long and real demand signals from markets like India, China and the Middle East mean handlers are likely to have plenty of interest as they balance their inventories into the summer. This sways our expectations towards a stable to modestly firming market for the near term.