February 2026 Almond Market Report

Per the February Position Report, net shipments exceeded 241 million pounds during the month of February. This is the second largest February shipment volume on record, falling short of the nearly 246 million pounds shipped in 2023. It was an increase of +12.2% from a year ago.

Export shipments set a record for February with shipment volume topping 196 million pounds (+23.5% YoY). Domestic shipments however were down -19.9% from a year ago, falling slightly below our expected target with just 45 million pounds shipped. This was the smallest domestic shipment volume for any month since the 2015/16 crop year. For the crop year, domestic shipments are off -18.1%, while export shipments are up +0.4%.

Handlers again experienced a robust purchasing pace in February. New purchases during February exceeded 246 million pounds and was the busiest February on record. Total commitments are up +2.77% YoY with Export markets up +5.23% and Domestic off -1.16%. With forward commitments roughly on par YoY in the Domestic market, we continue to project shipment volumes beginning to better align with volumes from a year ago on a month-to-month basis as we enter the spring with average monthly volume near 50 million pounds.

Field Conditions

The California almond bloom once again put on a spectacular show. The bloom at times was a bit condensed, with Nonpareil varieties noted as progressing into full bloom particularly quickly. The bloom season saw oscillating periods of active weather including significant precipitation, wind events, and periods of especially cold weather (including a rare dusting of snow for some northern most growers) between periods of sunny and mild temperatures.

This has growers looking ahead to nut set with some uncertainty and caution, but feeling they avoided disaster. More time is needed before assessing any weather impacts to future yield. As spring continues we'll continue to monitor reports from our growers.

More recently the weather has turned quite warm and dry reminding us of long term risks to the water supply. California’s average snowpack observed in the Sierra Nevada mountain range sits at just 50% of average as of March 12th. The North, where the state’s two largest reservoirs reside, has just 29% of its normal snow pack. Fortunately, nearly all of California’s major reservoirs remain at or above their historical averages for this time of year which will help water managers mitigate some of the impacts from below average snow melt this spring and summer.

On the heels of a below average water year, forecasters are predicting with growing confidence the development of an El Niño pattern in the Pacific Ocean, with increasing chances that what develops will be strong. While weather patterns are inherently variable, El Nino patterns are associated with elevated temperatures and dry conditions in California. This raises the risk of hot summer months and future drought.

Global Markets

Export markets have entered into a period of relative uncertainty with the advent of war in the Middle East impacting trade throughout the region and sending warning signals through global businesses and economies. Much of the news Stateside has been focused on the economic consequences to shipment disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. An impassable Strait would clearly impacts partners within the largest Middle Eastern almond market, the UAE, and markets serviced by traders based there. But military conflict has not been isolated to this particular maritime choke point and has involved strikes in many neighboring countries. Currently our partners in these markets are advising to continue shipments, but further escalation could begin to impact the flow of almond shipments to the region more broadly. As it stands, the shipment figures from the February report predated active military action in the region and thus any potential impacts to shipments will not be reflected yet in the data.

Market Review

India experienced an impressive shipment month in February importing over 41 million pounds. This was nearly +16 million pounds more than it imported a year ago. On the crop year, shipment volume to India improved from a -12% pace in January to -4% in February. India remains a strong buyer for California almonds and we expect that the India market will continue to see demand that could push shipment figures back to even, or even into growth territory by the end of the crop year. Supply however remains to be a concern as late receipts continue to push serious damage and reject levels up and early season price variances encouraged growers to divert harvest away from inshell production. There could be real strain on prompt shipments as we near the summer transition.

Elsewhere in the region, Pakistan continues to warrant attention up +130% and importing a respectable 10.4 million pounds on the crop year. Shipments to this market are largely consumed within the local market and suggest real growth in consumption patterns. Handlers looking to build business in growing markets may want to explore opportunities in Pakistan.

We have not often touched on our North American neighbors Canada and Mexico in our market reports; however, collectively these markets represent significant volume and have imported over 53 million pounds on the crop year. For context, this is roughly equivalent to the volume of Vietnam. Both have been experiencing shipment decline however with shipments down -4% to Mexico and -9% to Canada. The political climate has not consistently been friendly and could be suppressing cross-border business.

Western Europe saw strong shipment volume in February, importing over 69 million pounds as a region. As the region’s largest market, Spain continues to see significant growth, up +16% on the crop year. Italy too continued its growth trajectory and continues to be on pace to finish the year at the second largest market in the region currently pacing +18% growth. The Netherlands and Germany are sizable EU markets on the other end of the growth spectrum and are currently on pace to import fewer almonds on the crop year, with Germany off -2% and the Netherlands off -33%.

As previously touched on, Middle Eastern markets are likely to see the biggest short term disruptions from active conflict; however, the region experienced a strong shipment month prior to the outbreak of hostilities. As a region, shipments were up +14.7% YoY in February. For the crop year, imports are up +5%. The UAE is essentially flat for the crop year, off -1%, while Turkey is up +23%. Together these two countries account for over 80% of regional volume and have seen growth of +8%. Collectively, the rest of the Middle Eastern markets have seen modest declines, with markets like Saudi Arabia off -34%.

Shipments to China are showing an interesting trend. For the third month in a row shipments have been up YoY. In November, annual shipments were off -75%. By February, this figure improved to -52%. Make no mistake, shipment volumes have been modest, and a shift to value-added markets in Southeast Asia is still well underway with markets in the region up +49%. Nevertheless, the trend is worth watching as supply chains continue to find an equilibrium.

Market Analysis

Shipment figures in February would generally have Handlers striking an upbeat and slightly bullish beat as demand continued to materialize after both Handlers and Buyers began to share a consensus around supply. Buyers had been more comfortable taking longer positions with future commitments accelerating, the the hand to mouth buying pattern kept prompt demand high as shipments to export markets have now set records during two of the last three months. While domestic shipments are down, shipment and purchasing trends continue to point towards a more predictable volume range that export markets were easily making up for. In short, handlers have growing confidence that targeting a comfortable carry-forward doesn't require aggressive selling. This would continue to put pressure on prompt shipments, especially through the transition as preferred specifications become less available.

Fundamentally this would point to a stable to bullish market, but conflict in the Middle East has added a new variable of uncertainty and logistical disruption. Currently our global partners are largely advising we continue to ship those shipments scheduled to do so, but a prolonger conflict could certainly begin to change the business calculus in certain markets. This adds more risk than there otherwise would be for prompt demand materializing even as markets largely continue to operate hand to mouth.

The bottom line, significant uncertainty is now present in global markets. How businesses adjust and adapt will drive the near term market. A quick resolution and end to hostilities will help reduce impacts to the market.