May 2026 Almond Market Report

May’s Position Report shows that California handlers shipped over 214 million pounds during the month of May. This was an increase of +2.6% YoY. Domestic shipments fell -5.5% YoY, while export shipments increased +5.2%. On the crop year, net shipments are off -2.19% with domestic shipments down -13.61% and export shipments up +1.66%.

Total supply for the crop year remains effectively unchanged down -1.24% YoY. After factoring in shipment figures, computed inventory sits slightly ahead of last year up +1.14%.

The Position Report shows strong commitment levels compared to a year ago, with both domestic and export markets showing increased volumes from a year ago. Domestic commitments are up +5.73%, export commitments are up 11.11%, and total commitments are up +8.94%.

Some Commitment Context

A discussion about commitments deserves a little more space in this report if for no other reason than May is the first month that commitments for the new upcoming crop year are reported. This can significantly impact the overall commitment levels even though contracts for these volumes may have been agreed to months prior. This creates some nuance when trying to contextualize buying patterns. When comparing newly added commitments in May for instance we really need to look at both current crop year volumes as well as future crop year volumes.

Combined, newly reported commitment volumes were near 230 million pounds in May. This is an increase of nearly +50% YoY. Sizeable increases are seen in both new crop and current crop figures with new crop figures up +40.0% and current crop up +55.9%.

These figures seem exceptionally strong, except last year’s figures were rather anomalous. As we reported then, the new crop commitment figure was the smallest since the Almond Board started reporting new crop commitments separately and the combined newly reported commitment figure was the smallest in at least a decade. That is to say that this year’s figures are better compared to historical averages, where they generally fall within expected ranges.

El Nino Impacts

Forecasters have been predicting the emergence of an El Nino pattern in the Pacific Ocean for several months now. As of June 6th, the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center has declared that El Nino conditions have developed with increasing certainty that this year will be an especially strong one. Impacts to California can be varied, but strong El Nino events have been associated with increased precipitation in the southern portions of the state, elevated summer temperatures, and increased summer humidity.

All of these possible outcomes carry concerns for California almond growers. High temperatures stress trees and can impact kernel growth. Precipitation and humid can impact everything from pest management to harvesting depending on the timing of such events. Collectively they raise concerns about increased input costs, and potential quality and timing issues come harvest.

Export Markets

May shipment volumes to India fell by over -9 million pounds YoY. Local markets are reportedly trading on par with California origin and some buyers are expressing caution with the Rupee to US Dollar exchange rate weakened. But inshell prices from handlers have held steady where many kernel specifications have experienced some modest softening of late. With California handlers not willing to chase sales on inshell, the supply constraints we had been speculating on may very well be materializing. India’s typical accelerated buying pattern ahead of Diwali is still a couple of months away, so we’re not expecting significant demand growth in the short term, especially if buyers are indeed being hesitant because of current price levels. But should that caution, or a lack of available inventory effectively empty supply chains, there could be real competition for the first available product come harvest season.

Pakistan has seen significant importation growth on the crop year at +254%. Volumes have risen from 6.6 million pounds a year ago to top 23.3 million pounds for the crop year. There are other markets with triple digit growth rates for the crop year, but none are doing it on a base of more than a million pounds. Pakistan's growth however is layered. Consider that in the February Position Report imported volume growth on the crop year stood at +130%. This is still strong growth, but since monthly shipment figures have been multiple times the volumes seen a year ago accelerating Pakistan's annual growth rate to +254%. In May for instance, shipments were +669% higher than a year ago. This type of a swing is not just consumption driven. What we're seeing currently is demand growth partnered with a changing supply chain. Pakistan has long relied on sourcing through traders operating through the UAE. With shipping cut off into Dubai, buyers have shifted to directly importing additional volumes from California. How this dynamic continues to develop and how supply chains may continue to evolve as the situation in the Strait of Hormuz changes will be something we will continue to watch.

Western Europe markets showed strong demand in May importing +9.1% more volume in May than a year ago. Markets seeing significant growth YoY in May included Belgium (+68.8% YoY), Netherlands (+35.0% YoY), and Germany (+13.8% YoY). For the crop year, Spain continues to shine with a +15% growth rate, with Italy growing at +8% and currently the region’s second largest market. Germany is not far behind Italy and has a strong growth rate of +7% on the crop year. The Netherlands, while experiencing a -25% growth rate on the crop year, imported equal volume in May compared to a year ago and could well defend its reign as the #2 market before the crop year is over. For the crop year, the region is up +3%. This in spite of regional uncertainty with war in Ukraine and growing production capacity out of Spain and Portugal.

Interest for inshell products from Chinese buyers didn’t continue to materialize in direct shipments to the mainland, but may have helped Southeast Asian inshell shipments increase from 200 thousand to 1.9 million YoY. That said, increased demand for inshell shipments to the region has been a theme all crop season with shipments on the crop year up nearly +159%. On net, the region’s almond volume is up +33% on the crop year driven in large part by their strategic position as a value-add partner for Chinese buyers who face high import barriers importing directly from the US.

Turkey had been positioning itself as a Middle Eastern trading hub prior to the war between the US, Israel, and Iran. With shipping now effectively closed through the Strait of Hormuz, Turkey has continued to embraced its role as a regional trading hub and now functions as the new Dubai with regional shipments that would have headed to traders in the UAE now being routed to Turkey. Of course a supply chain pivot is never simple and straight forward, and perhaps predictably, shipments to the region as a whole have softened with May shipments off -8.6%. But with the UAE missing -11.7 million pounds of its 16 million pounds from a year ago, the war’s impact to regional shipment volume could have been much more significant without Turkey’s +9 million pound volume growth. Turkey is now growing at a +42% rate on the crop year and is currently the region’s largest importer with the UAE seeing a -27% drop. As a region, the Middle East is off -1% on the crop year and the region maintains strong demand as markets remain relatively empty and operating hand to mouth. Our sales team reports consistent interest for volume through the transition with new crop interest as well signaling continued market strength.

Morocco has topped 80 million pounds of imported almonds for the crop year. For context, Germany has imported 85.5 million, the Netherlands 85.9 million, and Italy 89.9 million. Italy is currently the 5th largest export market for California almonds. Italy has a population about 1.5 times larger than Morocco with Morocco having about 20 million fewer people. This represents a significant level of consumption on behalf of the Moroccan people and puts the country’s current annual growth rate of +47% into an especially impressive light. Continued growth at such a rate and consumption level seems implausible, but Morocco has clearly established itself as a strong consumer of California almonds and should continue to show strong demand.

Market Review

California handlers continue to be targeting a 500-550 pound carry forward, putting the industry in a historically well balanced position. While shipments tend to taper off slightly in June and July, the current -2.19% shipment pace for the crop year would still put the carry forward figure within that range at around 515 million. This provides the industry plenty of space to still find balance if shipments were to slow beyond the current annual pace. With commitment levels strong and handlers feeling comfortable with targeted inventory levels heading into the summer transition, handlers are not going to be especially motivated to sell likely setting up a firm market through the transition.

Now in year’s past, the Industry would be anticipating an Objective Forecast in July. No More. This means that as we near the end of the growing season and prepare for harvest, speculation on eventual crop size is going to occur without a historical barometer. This presents risks to both buyers and sellers as we enter the transition period in August with potentially much more weight given to early harvest figures. For now, the community consensus is that the Subjective Forecasts’ 2.7 billion pound projection remains a reasonable expectation, but changes to industry sentiments may be harder to benchmark this year.

Our team is also watching developments in the pistachio market as prices have soared amid lighter crop sizes and the war in Iran. This may motivate some producers to reevaluate their nut mixes or consider substitutions where possible spurring additional interest in almonds.

A switch to almonds wouldn't happen overnight, but with handlers content with inventory and not expecting a large supply influx come harvest, any added demand could impact pricing. While the EU appears covered in the immediate, the Middle East looks uncovered. Meanwhile, Indian buyers find themselves in an interesting situation. Inventories in California are likely tighter than buyers want to acknowledge at the same time the economic environment locally will likely keep many overly cautious and on the sidelines. This could put added pressure on prompt loads during the transition and early loads to begin harvest as buyers gear up for Diwali. If other markets need to vie for volume during this time, handlers may find premiums for their limited processing capacity. The risk for continued upward price pressure is there.

Looking further ahead, the upcoming 2026 crop will need to supply an second Diwali season with the calendar set to bring an early festive season in 2027. This will apply significant pressures to the inshell market for the upcoming season when supplies coming in are already tight. All eyes are going to be on reports from growers as the season persists and any signs about the upcoming harvest.