May 2026 Almond Market Report

May’s Position Report shows that California handlers shipped over 214 million pounds during the month of May. This was an increase of +2.6% YoY. Domestic shipments fell -5.5% YoY, while export shipments increased +5.2%. On the crop year, net shipments are off -2.19% with domestic shipments down -13.61% and export shipments up +1.66%.

Total supply for the crop year remains effectively unchanged down -1.24% YoY. After factoring in shipment figures, computed inventory sits slightly ahead of last year up +1.14%.

The Position Report shows strong commitment levels compared to a year ago, with both domestic and export markets showing increased volumes from a year ago. Domestic commitments are up +5.73%, export commitments are up 11.11%, and total commitments are up +8.94%.

Some Commitment Context

A discussion about commitments deserves a little more space in this report if for no other reason than May is the first month that commitments for the new upcoming crop year are reported. This can significantly impact the overall commitment levels even though contracts for these volumes may have been agreed to months prior. This creates some nuance when trying to contextualize buying patterns. When comparing newly added commitments in May for instance we really need to look at both current crop year volumes as well as future crop year volumes.

Combined, newly reported commitment volumes were near 230 million pounds in May. This is an increase of nearly +50% YoY. Sizeable increases are seen in both new crop and current crop figures with new crop figures up +40.0% and current crop up +55.9%.

These figures seem exceptionally strong, except last year’s figures were rather anomalous. As we reported then, the new crop commitment figure was the smallest since the Almond Board started reporting new crop commitments separately and the combined newly reported commitment figure was the smallest in at least a decade. That is to say that this year’s figures are better compared to historical averages, where they generally fall within expected ranges.

Export Markets

May shipment volumes to India fell by over -9 million pounds YoY. Local markets are reportedly trading on par with California origin and some buyers are expressing caution with the Rupee to US Dollar exchange rate weakened. But inshell prices from handlers have held steady where many kernel specifications have experienced some modest softening of late. With California handlers not willing to chase sales on inshell, the supply constraints we had been speculating on may very well be materializing. India’s typical accelerated buying pattern ahead of Diwali is still a couple of months away, so we’re not expecting significant demand growth in the short term, especially if buyers are indeed being hesitant because of current price levels. But should that caution, or a lack of available inventory effectively empty supply chains, there could be real competition for the first available product come harvest season.

Pakistan has seen significant importation growth on the crop year at +254%. Volumes have risen from 6.6 million pounds a year ago to top 23.3 million pounds on the crop year. There are other markets with triple digit growth rates for the crop year, but none are doing it on a base of more than a million pounds. While Pakistan is a neighbor of India, both countries largely consume what they import, implying that the recent growth is more closely related to consumption growth rather than supplanting of trade volume between the two neighbors. As such, Pakistan appears to be emerging as a significant growth market and one we will be evaluating for sustained demand growth into the new crop year.

Western Europe markets showed strong demand in May importing +9.1% more volume in May than a year ago. For the crop year, the region is up +3%. Markets seeing significant growth YoY in May included Belgium (+68.8% YoY), Netherlands (+35.0% YoY), and Germany (+13.8% YoY). For the crop year, Spain continues to shine with a +15% growth rate, with Italy growing at +8% and currently the region’s second largest market. Germany is not far behind Italy and has a strong growth rate of +7% on the crop year. The Netherlands, while experiencing a -25% growth rate on the crop year, imported equal volume in May compared to a year ago and could well defend its reign as the #2 market before the crop year is over.

Interest for inshell products from Chinese buyers didn’t continue to materialize in direct shipments to the mainland, but may have helped Southeast Asian inshell shipments increase from 200 thousand to 1.9 million YoY. That said, increased demand for inshell shipments to the region has been a theme all crop season with shipments on the crop year up nearly +159%. On net, the region’s almond volume is up +33% on the crop year driven in large part by their strategic position as a value-add partner for Chinese buyers who face high import barriers importing directly from the US.

Turkey had been positioning itself as a Middle Eastern trading hub prior to the war between the US, Israel, and Iran. This positioning has helped the region pivot its almond supply chain rather quickly with shipments that would have likely gone to the UAE now going to Turkey with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Shipments to the region were still off -8.6% in May, but with the UAE missing -11.7 million pounds of its 16 million pounds from a year ago, the war’s impact to regional shipment volume could have been much more significant without Turkey’s +9 million pound volume growth. Turkey is now growing at a +42% rate on the crop year and is currently the region’s largest importer with the UAE seeing a -27% drop. As a region, the Middle East is off -1% on the crop year.

Morocco has topped 80 million pounds of imported almonds for the crop year. For context, Germany has imported 85.5 million, the Netherlands 85.9 million, and Italy 89.9 million. Italy is currently the 5th largest export market for California almonds. Italy has a population about 1.5 times larger than Morocco with Morocco having about 20 million fewer people. This represents a significant level of consumption on behalf of the Moroccan people and puts the country’s current annual growth rate of +47% into an especially impressive light. Continued growth at such a rate and consumption level seems implausible, but Morocco has clearly established itself as a strong consumer of California almonds and should continue to show strong demand.

Market Review

California handlers continue to be targeting a 500-550 pound carry forward, putting the industry in a historically well balanced position. While shipments tend to taper off slightly in June and July, the current -2.19% shipment pace for the crop year would still put the carry forward figure within that range at around 515 million. This provides the industry plenty of space to still find balance if shipments were to slow beyond the current annual pace.

With commitment levels strong and handlers feeling comfortable with targeted inventory levels heading into the summer transition, handlers are not going to be especially motivated to sell. But buyers may not be aggressively buying either, with many markets covered for immediate needs. This could create some short term fluctuations as buyers or sellers consider taking a perceived advantage when they feel like they can. Generally speaking though, pricing seems likely to remain relatively stable.

Now in year’s past, the Industry would be anticipating an Objective Forecast in July. No More. This means that as we near the end of the growing season and prepare for harvest, speculation on eventual crop size is going to occur without a historical barometer. This presents risks to both buyers and sellers as we enter the transition period in August with potentially much more weight given to early harvest figures. For now, the community consensus is that the Subjective Forecasts’ 2.8 billion pound projection remains a reasonable expectation, but changes to industry sentiments may be harder to benchmark this year. We will do our best to bring you our perspective as we near harvest, but for now we see a balanced market that will likely see caution from both sides for the short term.