May 2025 Almond Market Report

The May Position Report shows that shipments of California almonds surpassed 211 million pounds for the month of May. This was -6.3% below the previous May. Export shipments were flat, while domestic shipments were off -22.3%, the third straight month of double-digit declines YoY within the domestic market. Domestic shipments are now off -7% on the crop year, while export shipments are flat. Together, net shipments are off -1.9% on the crop year.

Computed Inventory sits at +1.44% ahead of a year ago and the industry continues to target a carry forward figure at or below 500 million pounds signaling a continued tight supply scenario.

May is the first month that commitments for the future crop are reported. This added data point has driven total commitments to pace -12.7% behind a year ago. New crop commitments are over -100 million pounds behind their levels a year ago, representing a -62% decline. The 65 million pounds of new crop commitments currently on the books is the lowest number since future crop commitments began being reported separately on the May Position Report in 2016.

Export Markets

Indian buyers imported 35 million pounds in May outpacing shipment volume from a year ago by nearly +3 million pounds. Shipments to India have accelerated this spring helping the subcontinent rebound from a -21% pace for the crop year it was experiencing in December to just -3% in May. Demand from India should remain strong as the industry approaches the summer transition period, though with California handler on-hand inventory levels tightening through the transition, Indian buyers may find it harder to source their preferred specifications.

As a region Western Europe finds its shipment levels on the crop year even with its volume from a year ago. Significant fluctuations within the region’s individual markets are present however. Shipments to Spain, as an example, are off -11% on the crop year. Spain has enjoyed two straight months of sizable shipment growth however, improving from an -18% pace back in March. The Netherlands didn’t import as many almonds in May as it did a year ago; but, on the crop year it remains a particular bright spot. Its +22% growth rate on the crop year represents an increase of over +20 million pounds. It is behind only India, Spain and the UAE as the only markets to exceed 100 million pounds of imports on the crop year. Italy has also seen tremendous growth this year adding about +10 million pounds of additional volume this crop year. Italy is now the third largest EU market surpassing Germany, which has lost about -13% of its import volume on the crop year.

The Middle East continues to pace double-digit growth on the crop year. Its +12% growth rate represents growth of roughly +32 million pounds and all major markets in the region are enjoying growth. The United Arab Emirates has imported over 138 million pounds of almonds on the crop year and has grown +4% on the crop year. The UAE sits just -4 million pounds behind Spain for the second largest export market for California almonds. Turkey currently boasts a +15% growth rate on the crop year and has imported over +12 million more pounds than it had a year ago. Saudi Arabia has itself added +6.5 million pounds and is growing at a +30% rate.

In February, Morocco had imported +20% more almonds on the crop year than it had the year before. By May, after three straight months where shipments fell below the pace of a year ago, the North African country had slipped to a -14% rate. Morocco is a market that has seen significant fluctuations year to year. In the 21/22 crop year its volume shrunk -39%, then grew +57% in 22/23 followed by +23% growth in 23/24. Large swings are not unusual for this market. At its current growth rate, shipments would still surpass shipment volumes from the 22/23 crop year, showing sustained growth over a longer time period.

Vietnam has imported almost +16 million additional pounds on the crop year than a year ago and is growing at a rate of +46%. Singapore and Malaysia are also experiencing significant growth, growing at +80% and +44% respectively. Collectively the Southeast Asia region is up +31% on the crop year. While the growth is significant, some may have expected further growth from these markets considering the tense economic relationship between the US and China and the region’s proximity to China and its potential as a value-added pass-through market. Growth rates in the region however have been largely steady since the new US administration took over in January. While shipments of California almonds to China are off -51%, these heavy declines also predate the US election. In fact, the rate at which markets in Southeast Asia were growing were stronger before election results were in. The reality that economic tensions are not isolated to just between the US and China may also be playing a factor as any export from the US faces uncertainty regardless of the destination market. Rather than seek alternative paths to import US grown almonds, Chinese buyers appear to be instead shifting their purchasing to other sources of production like Australia.

The US Domestic Market

Domestic almond shipments have seen three straight months of double-digit declines. At the current pace of -7.03% growth, domestic shipments would dip to levels not seen since the 2016/17 crop year. Market reports, consumer sentiments, and industry sentiments however continue to signal almonds maintaining a favorable position within the US domestic markets. Market Reports World for instance projects the US retail almond market to grow at a +5.4% CAGR through 2027 and reports US per-capita almond consumption rose nearly +6.5% between 2023 and 2024. Almonds continue to top all nuts as a primary ingredient in new product launches.

While almonds remain well positioned within the US market as a nutrient rich ingredient and enjoy positive sentiments by US consumers, consumption growth has experienced some headwinds. One particular example is the maturation and positioning of almond milk within the US market. Almond milk consumption has been on the decline. A March 2025 report by Vox reported recent declines of -5% in no dairy milk consumption. A 2024 article by AgFunderNews reported a decline of -8.4% in the consumption of almond milk. Contributing to the decline in almond milk consumption include the premium position plant-based milks like almond milk maintain within the US market. As consumers become more price sensitive, this position may be working against growing consumption. US consumers are also moving to higher protein and fat products which has fueled the growth in cow’s milk away from plant based alternatives.

Almond consumption via almond milk is not easily tracked because most commercial producers don’t publish at what rate they utilize almonds to produce their almond milk. By weight, the product is generally water heavy and almond light. Nonetheless, almond milk has experienced exceptional growth within the US market over the past several years. Common estimates suggest that almond milk holds about 60% of the US plant-based milk alternatives market, which would put US consumption over 750 million liters of almond milk annually.

Cocoa prices have also experienced significant price increases. Since the beginning of 2023, cocoa prices have tripled, with much of that increase coming since the beginning of 2024. Our domestic chocolate producers have expressed to us that this price increase has hampered their business more than anything else pointing out that almonds remain a cost effective ingredient compared to other nuts.

The economic uncertainties within the US may also be playing a factor. US consumer sentiment hit its second lowest mark on record in May. While it has since rebounded, US producers have taken note of the weary consumer and have become more cautious regarding product development across all sectors. This includes food manufactures, with Mintel reporting significantly fewer product launches in the US in 2024, with the slowdown likely continuing. Fewer product innovations and both consumers and manufacturers being cautious, the environment for accelerated growth of almond consumption within the US market is certainly suppressed.

The US market remains an important market for almond consumption and almonds maintain their attractiveness ingredient by both the US consumer and producer. While economic factors create a cautious environment for the short-term, long-term consumption growth continues to be likely for California almonds.

Contextualizing Market Conditions

Supply remains tight. With just under 900 million pounds on hand, California handlers need to ship just 200 million pounds in June and July to reach a 500 million pound carry forward. We have been signaling for several months that a 500 million pound carry forward is already below the 20% stock-to-use ratio that has signaled supply balance for the industry as it transitions to the new crop. While shipments in May fell below levels seen a year ago, the pace at which handlers shipped almonds remained sufficient to continue to target a carry forward at or even below this threshold. This suggests that the modest dip in shipments seen in May is much more reflective of the supply reality than any perceived reduction on the demand side. Shipments simply can’t exceed 200 million pounds per month by any significant margin or the industry risks impactful supply shortages. We're forecasting the carryforward will come in between 500 and 550 million pounds, well within market balance.

The forthcoming crop is unlikely to change the supply reality. The recent Subjective Forecast projects a similar harvest volume as the current crop year. Growers had held a similar sentiment for some time, but there is growing concern that the eventual harvest may not fully reach that threshold. Field reports have already indicated that orchards where water was restricted last year are coming in lighter than last year. While surface water availability should be sufficient this year, even those with access to water are raising the alarm about costs with electricity needed to pump the water on their orchards exceeding $1,000 per acre per irrigation event. This has growers continuing to stretch irrigation application just as summer heat arrives. Both the Old Farmer's Almanac and NOAA are forecasting above average temperatures for California this summer and California has already seen average temperatures above normal for May. This could put more stress on orchards as growers work to manage costs.

Low commitment levels do suppress some of the supply side pressures. There is likely cautiousness from both handlers who have concerns about committing inventory they're not sure they will have and buyers who are trying to navigate an ever changing tariff environment. It would not be surprising to see the market take a bit of a breather as we move through summer.

But market fundamentals remain strong. Prices have increased +60% or more across varieties and specifications in the past year. This has occurred in spite of global economic uncertainties, wars, tariffs and a pull back from China. Prices have risen without a single large market like India fueling demand growth. These are signs of a healthy and balanced market and healthy markets will still ebb and flow.

The July Objective Forecast will likely be the next market bell weather, at least on the supply side. Buyers remain willing to operate largely hand-to-mouth and both handlers and buyers seem to be accepting of a ‘wait and see’ type of approach. The risks of such an approach are if the Objective Forecast falls significantly one way or another from the Subjective Forecast, or is a market or markets go on a purchasing run during the transition when supplies are already tight. We'll keep an eye on it all and provide another update next month.