August 2026 Almond Market Report

The August 2026 Position Report is the first official data points the industry receives for the new crop year. The report shows that California handlers received nearly 402 million pounds of almonds in August, +55% ahead of last year. Receipts came in at their fastest pace in over the last decade and far exceeded the 10-year average of 243 million pounds. This illustrates the early start to harvest that growers experienced this year beginning 2-3 weeks earlier than average.

The August Position report also included supplemental documentation on how the carry forward figure was calculated. This is an important figure as it establishes the baseline inventory levels the industry brings forward from the previous crop year. The figure is calculated after factoring the loss and exempt figure which ran higher than estimated at -2.87%. The carry forward to begin the year was reported as 470.7 million pounds, -2.72% below last year’s figure.

The supplemental documentation also includes an estimate of edible supply reflective of survey data from participating handlers. The edible supply is estimated to be nearly identical to last year.

Shipments topped 190 million pounds, exceeding last year’s volume by +20.46% on net. Export shipments were up +31.0% and domestic shipments off -3.31%. Compared to the 5-year average of 194.8 million pounds, August shipments are well within norms.

Monthly contracting activity slowed from its more elevated pace over the past several months with 138.8 million pounds contracted during the month. This made August the slowest August by volume contracted in five year. But total committed inventory is just -5.5% behind where it was a year ago and the suppressed activity was driven by an unwillingness of suppliers to enter the market. This is evidenced by continued price increases throughout the month.

Export Markets

India's local spot markets were widely reported as uncovered heading into August with buyers needing to replenish inventories ahead of the Diwali season. In August, Indian buyers imported over 44 million pounds, up +170% from a year ago as the largest August on record. With Diwali looming, there may still be some interest in prompt shipments, but significant volume has entered the market with more on the water. September volumes may prove strong, but we expect India to be less active as we head into fall.

China and their value-added partners in Southeast Asia were relatively quiet to start the crop year. Direct shipments to China were down -52% YoY. Down too were shipments to SE Asia, off -5% regionally. We continue to expect more activity from China and SE Asian partners with inventories from Australia having been impacted by rain during harvest. We view the broader Chinese supply chain as uncovered ahead of Chinese New Year. This is inclusive of inshell products, which were stagnant in August with only Vietnam recording any volume with 156 thousand pounds on the books. Collectively, this was about half of the inshell volume to these markets from a year ago. On net, most SE Asian markets saw shipment growth with the -77% decline from Indonesia sufficient enough to erase all gains regionally.

With Western Europe's preferred Std. 5 specification in short supply from other potential suppliers, buyers continued to lean on California handlers for their supply. Local harvests from Spain are likely going to suppress shipment growth as they become available, but local production remains a fraction of total demand. As a region, Western Europe was up +8% from a year ago with several large individual markets up significantly including Germany (+15%), Italy (+61%), and the UK (+100%). Spain (-15%), the Netherlands (-5%), and France (-36%) were among the markets seeing declines YoY.

Middle Eastern supply lines are continuing to see disruption. Almond shipments to the UAE were off -63% YoY and Saudi Arabia was off -54%. Turkey maintained its added importance as a regional trading hub with volumes up +113% from a year ago. Collectively the region was off -17% in August, but as we touched on in previous reports, the supply chain disruptions impacting shipments to the Middle East are rerouting some shipments that would have previously been routed through the UAE. Direct shipments to Pakistan, which are up +265%, is a key example. When combining shipment figures of Pakistan and the Middle East, volumes are actually up +15.7%. Demand continues to show signs of strength in the region, but large sizes look to continue to be in short supply as hullers report kernel sizes consistently smaller than a year ago.

Forward Conditions

Harvest began 2-3 weeks earlier this year and we can see this reality manifest in accelerated receipts hitting handler’s inventories in August. The early harvest almost certainly buoyed shipment figures with handlers further along in processing new inventory adding flexibility to their offerings with a tight carry forward figure below 500 million pounds.

A significant portion of harvest remains and handlers will continue to process receipts for months to come. Initial reports though continue to point to smaller kernel sizes across broad portions of California’s growing region. Yields are mixed with industry consensus beginning to coalesce around a 2.6 billion pound harvest expectation. This would be roughly -3-4% smaller than a year ago representing a tightening supply situation.

A strong El Nino continues to be forecast this winter. Weather outcomes are anything but certain, but El Nino is associated with wetter weather, particularly in the southern portions of the state. Elevated humidity and or weather events are possible as harvest continues, but remain unusual for this time of year; however, any weather related impacts to harvest could continue to dampen (pun intended) supply expectations.

Even with the hope of a wetter raining season, water availability continues to be a long-term headwind for California Growers. California's current Delta Water Plan would further restrict water access for farmers and it's unclear whether opposition from the federal government might prompt a rollback on restrictions. California's largest water storage project in decades also faces uncertainty as concerns arise over whether there is enough water available to make the project feasible. All of that is before you factor in the accelerated rollout of SGMA that continues to tighten restriction on ground water pumping even in wet years. All this is to say that growers face an unfavorable regulatory environment, especially when it comes to securing water, which is changing the calculus when deciding to invest in the cultivation of almonds. Peak almond acreage has already occurred, suppressing long-term production capacity from California.

Market Outlook

Almond commodity prices continued broad gains in August nearing or topping decade highs across most specifications. Sellers have been particularly cautious of late expecting a tight supply figure. Where buyers might have once been cautious, continued price increases indicate buyers are now chasing price. As further evidence of strong demand, our sales team reported excessive interest from buyers ahead of the Position Report with long time partners inquiring about full year coverage and buyers who had previously been unable to do business now reaching out with earnest interest. The bull market is in full swing.

Signals from the ongoing harvest will continue to hold the potential to move markets in both directions. For now though, demand looks to be especially strong. China and its value-added markets are uncovered. Chinese buyers had been reluctant to jump in the market having been surprised at how fast the market moved, but there aren't viable alternatives for supply for their quality expectations ahead of the Chinese New Year and will need to secure supply. The Middle East is poorly covered and India is also replenishing supplies as Diwali nears with shipments already on the water for September.

A year ago these circumstances would probably incentivize hand to mouth purchasing, and we'll likely see some continued caution from buyers as they assess how significantly higher prices may impact consumption demand. But markets have yet to balk on a broad scale and the astute observes understand that a return to those bumper crop yields is increasingly unlikely. Rising production costs, increased regulation barriers and water scarcity are but a few of the significant headwinds that has made planting new acres, let alone replacing aging orchards, increasingly less tenable. There simply isn't a supply influx on the horizon from California. So while we're a long ways away from bloom and a new growing season, its no wonder our sales team is once again fielding inquiries about year-long contracting.

There is always a limit to price elasticity. The biggest question for the market remains what will the final yield bring the industry? At 2.6 billion pounds handlers are already facing a reality where they will be forced to ship less volume. It's supply side economics 101. So we'll keep an eye out as the market continue to react to the new bull market and will help bring some clarity again when the next Position Report brings us a new month's set of data.