September 2026 Almond Market Report

Per the September Position Report, California almond handlers shipped 232 million pounds in September marking a +17.9% increase from a year ago. The volume shipped in September was the second largest September on record, second only to the 2020/21 crop year. Through the first two months of the crop year, net shipment volume is up +19% driven by large export volumes that are up +29.3% during this time frame. Domestic shipments are down -7.9%.

Total commitments topped 529 million pounds falling -3.59% YoY. This reflects monthly contracting activity that falls well within historical trends with the industry transacting a little more that 264 million pounds in September.

Harvest continues with hulling and shelling operations in full swing. An early start to harvest has buoyed receipts with the Position Report indicating received volume +22.48% ahead of last year. This in turn has boosted inventory figures ahead of last year at this time with Computed Inventory up +12.52% and Uncommitted Inventory up +28.54%.

Harvest Continues

Crop size remains the most substantial variable for the California Almond market. With harvest beginning early, handlers have more on hand at this time than they did a year ago. While the early receipts have ensured supplies across all specifications, the elevated inventories levels aren't yet indicative of a larger yield. In fact, industry consensus has continued to coalesce around a 2.6 billion pound yield expectation.

But there are concerns about possible downside risks to that expectation. Northern California orchards are running -35-40% behind crop volume from a year ago. While Northern growers account for the smallest portion of the crop, per the 2025 Almond Almanac, Northern counties still accounted for 16.8% of the total crop in 2025. If all other regions came in on par with last year's totals, we'd still be looking at a reduction of between -1.6 and -1.8 million pounds from last year's 2.7 billion pound harvest. The question market participants should be asking themselves is how much of this downside risk is already priced into the market if the general thinking is still 2.6 billion pounds?

Weather has been favorable for harvest with periods of above average temperatures and predominantly dry. The likelihood of precipitation increases as we enter November and El Nino threatens significant uncertainty ahead for the winter, but this far harvest has been free of any widespread events that would impact yield.

Export Markets

India has been on an unprecedented buying spree. Indian importers brought in a record 66 million pounds in September and have already imported over 110 million pounds through the first two months of the crop year. That volume is +148% larger than it was a year ago. There are a confluence of factors impacting shipment volumes, including an approaching Diwali season that comes on the heels of a period of slow importation and a depletion of local inventories. Global logistics issues prompted some importers to route additional loads direct from California selecting more favorable shipping routes to ensure adequate inventories ahead of Diwali. California handlers were also better positioned to fulfill early season demand with the early start to harvest helping accelerate shipments.

Regardless of the influences, the record shipment volume in September is particularly eye-catching. While we expect markets to take a bit of a breather with local markets no longer having time to import ahead of Diwali, reports on the ground suggest that local supply chains aren't as well covered as the 66 million pounds of imports might otherwise suggest.

Local almond harvests in Spain are reported to be significantly larger than expected. This has softened prices for locally sourced product as operations grapple with capacity limitation. This is likely to suppress shipment volumes from California handlers into Spain as well as some neighboring EU markets, at least through the harvest season while capacity constraints make moving volume at a discount more favorable to local producers and handlers. Without demand growth, a strong harvest may also impact shipment volumes from California into the region over the crop year as local production still enjoys a shipping advantage.

Reports on the ground suggest that the Western Europe markets are still operating largely hand to mouth. With global shipping channels seeing extended transit times, local production may be favored and suppress shipments from California. But EU production can not service all demand needs. We are still expecting these markets to be a significant importer.

As a region Western Europe sits -2% behind last year’s volume through two months. Spain is off -16%. Italy continues to see growth and is currently the second largest importer of almonds in the region up +15%. The Netherlands is off -4%, while Germany is up +7% and the UK is up +16%.

The Middle East remains a dynamic, and rather resilient, market. Through two months, shipment volume to the region is down -6%. The UAE continues to see large declines with imports off -45% driven by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Turkey continues to take up a lot of the slack offering a market favorable for regional trading and is up +61%. Saudi Arabia has also seen significant shipment growth, up +57% as it offers a reasonable option for transshipment to neighboring markets.

But if we’re discussing Middle Eastern markets, we now need to include Pakistan, which has seen shipments explode since conflict between the US and Iran disrupted their usual import conduit with traders out of the UAE. Taken together, the Middle East and Pakistan are experiencing a +19.4% increase in imported volume from a year ago over the first two months of the crop year. Additionally, our sales teams continues to report strong interest from the region suggesting that many markets continue to operate hand to mouth.

Chinese buyers increased their direct imports from California in September doubling kernel imports from a year ago and adding a million pounds of inshell. Collectively shipments to China are up +32% through two months. The value-add markets in Southeast Asia are down on net -6%, but inshell shipments into the region have seen a modest increase. This was expected and will likely continue with supplies from Australia not meeting quality needs after weather impacted harvest this year. In aggregate, volumes to China and Southeast Asia are generally comparable YoY. Individual markets are likely to fluctuate as Chinese buyers continue to assess supply chains, but without significant change in trade policy overall volumes from California are not likely to see significant growth over the course of the crop year.

Market Recap

September brought some relief to what had been a rapid expansion of commodity prices with some softening occurring as handlers looked to add volume to their books. Some recovery seems to be taking hold though as we begin October with shipment volumes well ahead of the pace a year ago and handlers becoming more cautious. Committed inventory levels remain comparable to historical figures. Our sales team continue to report interest from buyers for the full 2027 calendar year. Taken together, these are strong signals that demand remains persistent providing less incentive for handlers to continue being aggressive in their offers.

California can be seen as largely oversold at the moment and with eyes on any signals to the eventual size of the ongoing harvest, shipment and new purchasing volumes are likely to slow into October. This could keep prices firm for those looking for prompt shipments. Should strong ongoing interest for forward volume or another strong shipment month manifest in October, this would only further elevate concerns about supply and continue to drive prices higher. It seems less likely at this stage of harvest that we’ll be surprised by a yield that substantially exceeds expectations, and we've touched on some of our concerns for further downside risks, but yields is far from certain and continued monitoring of harvest will continue to be a major variable that the market will watch.

Logistical constraints will also continue to impact the market. Many have become reliant on hand to mouth purchasing behaviors. Extended lead times in transit could stain this model and force buyers into hedging their supply chains by taking longer positions. As purchasing interest accelerates, competition for the same inventory increases. If this occurs when handlers are already cautious to bring offers, or coincides with a scenario where harvest expectations decline there could be significant price movement yet again.

Generally, we still understand this to be a fundamentally bullish market with significantly more upside risks than down. Harvest, transportation, and price elasticity remain the key variables. We will continue to monitor and provide our insights yet again with the next Position Report.