September 2025 Almond Market Update

September’s Position Report shows that California handlers have received over 992 million pounds of almonds so far this crop year. This is -4.1% below last year’s total at this time. During September new crop receipts topped 733 million pounds, off just slightly from the 744 million pounds that were received during September 2024. Total supply currently sits at -4.0% below last year’s figure.

Shipments during September exceeded 197 million pounds, down -7.6% YoY. Export shipment volume was down -6.3% YoY in September, while domestic shipments declined -11.5%. Through the first two months of the crop year, shipments are down -7.0%.

Total computed on-hand inventory was reported just above 1.1 billion pounds. This is -2.98% below inventory levels a year ago. New business done in September was calculated at 220 million pounds, putting current committed inventory just below 549 million pounds, down -17.75% YoY. Total uncommitted inventory tops 552 million pounds, up +18.09% YoY.

Export Markets

Shipment volume to India through the first two months of the crop year is off -39% YoY. The India market has been covered to meet the needs through Diwali, and there were reports of importers delaying the release of cargo to take advantage of the reduction of the goods and service tax. This likely kept importers focus within the local market. Rebalancing supply chains and resupply post-Diwali should bring back additional demand from Indian importers.

Shipments to China have declined -78% through the first two months of the crop year. Waning shipments to China is nothing new however. Might the damage to import volume already been done? This time last year Chinese buyers had imported 11.8 million pounds. In 2023 this number was 16.5 million and in 2022 it was 27.7 million. So far this year China has imported just 2.6 million pounds. The lesson here being that sustained trade pressures will continue to erode existing supply channels. Shipments direct to China have simply become economically untenable and have become a source of last resort.

Markets in South East Asia that can offer processing advantages for Chinese producers in need of almonds is one way in which supply chains have shifted. So far this crop year Vietnam (+62%), Malaysia (+126%), Thailand (+19%), and Indonesia (+171%) have all continued to see sizable growth. As a region, SE Asian markets have increased shipments by nearly 8.5 million pounds through the first two months of the crop year. While significant and sustained, the growth in these markets does not fully supplant shipments that used to go directly to China, implying Chinese buyers are also likely looking elsewhere to supply their almonds.

Western Europe markets have imported +24% more almonds through the first two months of the crop year than they did a year ago. Nearly all markets in the region have seen gains YoY. Spain is up +42% importing over +7 million more pounds than last year. The Netherlands is up +14%, Italy is up +9% and Germany is up +10%. European importers have a closing window to bring supplies in before the Christmas holiday season. Short term needs could also be offset with local supplies as Spain harvests its crops softening any any lingering near-term demand. Demand beyond the holiday season will be something to watch as buyers remain uncovered beyond the New Year.

Middle Eastern markets present a bit of a mixed bag thus far through the crop year. The region as a whole is flat YoY. The UAE, the region’s largest market, is up +30%, but other major players like Saudi Arabia (-3%) and Turkey (-38%) are down. Cautiousness seems to be the common sentiment in the market as price volatility and the lingering uncertainty of crop size has pushed buyers and sellers apart. As market forces become clearer, activity should once again pick up.

Morocco has seen a bit of resurgence and is up +151% YoY on the crop year. However, import volume still lags behind both 2023 and 2022. We’ll be looking for this North African country to continue to rebound as the crop year progresses.

Domestic Demand

Domestic almond shipments have unquestionably undergone a shift. On the crop year volume to domestic almond buyers is down nearly -17%. Monthly shipment figures have been their lowest in at least 10 years for five consecutive months and six of the last seven. Several factors are likely at play in the domestic market as sticky inflation, a cooling jobs market and souring consumer sentiment are likely conspiring to suppress consumer discretionary spending. Products that have a luxury positioning like almond milk have already seen declines. Consumer price sensitivity has also motivated product manufacturers to explore ways to ease any price increases with strategies like reformulation and repackaging. Collectively these present significant headwinds within the domestic market, but almonds maintain some favorable advantages as well including relative cost-effectiveness compared to other tree nuts and remain top of mind for consumers for their nutrient profile.

Market Conditions

Commodity prices softened during the back half of September and declines continued into the first part of October as the expectation of a softer shipment volume encouraged some handlers to move inventory. India having covered Diwali and needing to shuffle local shipments in anticipation of tax changes kept many Indian buyers off of the market. India’s influence has become so large that had Indian importers simply matched their volumes from a year ago, it would have erased the entire decline seen within the export markets and moved it into growth territory. India is not covered past Diwali and will need to resupply. India simply returning to the market could easily swing market dynamics back the other way.

And India isn’t the only market that doesn’t have long term coverage. Many markets have been operating effectively hand to mouth. This has created a scenario that is rife for market volatility as different markets come and go, but can't stay off for long. Whether this has been born of a desire to try and catch the market, wounds inflicted from past supply chain disruptions, or economic uncertainties, it appears that globally buyers have the sentiment that playing the short game and dollar cost averaging short term purchases is less risky than taking longer term positions.

This strategy may have been quite successful, but there is real risk here. California handlers have both a finite processing capacity and a need for a steady flow of business to sustain cash flow. When handlers have short term shipping capacity, prices will decline for prompt shipments. When they don’t have capacity, prompt shipments don’t come cheap.

Uncertainty about the crop size also lingers. California handlers brought less than 484 million pounds into the new crop year. This represented a tight supply scenario and price volatility during this time illustrated that. While the Objective Forecast predicted a harvest volume of 3.0, huller reports continue to bring this forecast into question with expectations of a crop size similar to last year between 2.7 - 2.8 billion pounds. This would erase any ability for California handlers to increase shipment volumes of last year's volume and risks real supply side pressure, especially if the eventual crop comes in any lighter than expected.