November 2025 Almond Market Report

November’s Position Report recorded shipment volume exceeding 220.5 million pounds in November. This was down -18.7% on net over last year. Export shipments were off -20.2%, while domestic shipments fell -13.0%. Note however that net shipment volume in November 2024 represented a historical high and was particularly larger than any of the previous three years. Such a shipment bump in November 2024 was more of an anomaly than an expectation, so relative declines in 2025 should not be a surprise.

Crop receipts total -6.6% less than this time a year ago. This represents a bit of an improvement after a slow October that ended with handlers reporting crop receipts down -7.97%YoY. Computed inventory after accounting for slower shipment volumes is still off -4.43% and uncommitted inventory is off -1.34%. Purchasing activity in November remained within recent historical ranges for November with handlers contracting about 204 million pounds during the month. Total committed inventory lags from a year ago by -10.87% with domestic commitments off -4.05% and export commitments off -14.63%.

Harvest Conditions

November brought at, or slightly above average, rainfall to California growing regions, but temperatures were generally warmer on average during the month. This helped keep processors from falling further behind in working through their stockpiles. Early season wet weather in October however raised the risk of pest infestations, mold and other damage; and, we may already be seeing these concerns come to reality. Rejects, as reported in the Position Report, rose from 2.51% on net in October to 2.55%. While this increase may not seem significant, when calculating the relative reject rate for just November we see a rate of 2.69% demonstrating a quicker acceleration that the net figures would suggest.

Amplifying concerns of moisture damage, California’s Central Valley has seen extended periods of Tule fog that has brought temperatures significantly below average, high overnight moisture, and day time hours without sun. This persistent weather pattern has lingered for several weeks now and forecasters are not anticipating this weather pattern to fully dissipate until mid December at best.

Export Markets

India returned to the market in a meaningful way in November. Shipment volume during the month was up +29.4% over last year. While shipment volume on the crop year continues to lag -19%, the increased volume suggests a rebalancing of inventories and a need to resupply. The overall strength of the market and the Indian consumer’s penchant for almonds should continue to elevate almond shipments and we expect that sales volume will continue to recover as the crop year progresses.

We touched on this in our October Report, but we continue to tracking possible inshell shortages as the season evolves. Inshell has historically carried a price premium to kernels, but this was not the case through harvest. Growers feeling the pinch on years of at or below breakeven commodity prices would not have had the same motivation to divert their harvests into inshell as in the past. While we have recently seen prices come back in line with historical differences between kernel and inshell, many decisions on whether to leave as inshell or process for kernels have already been made and the consequences of these decisions may prove to be impactful.

Southeast Asian markets continued to experience elevated shipments in November, though the pace of acceleration slowed during the month. On the crop year, the region is up +58%, with its largest market, Vietnam, up +82%. That said, when considering that the majority of the growth in the region has been driven by shifting Chinese supply chains, volumes inclusive of China were actually down in November and are down about -4% for the crop year.

Shipments to the Middle East in November were -7.6% behind shipment volumes a year ago. For the crop year, volume to the region is off -9%. The two largest markets, UAE (-8%) and Turkey (-6%) largely pace the overall market, but Saudi Arabia is off -45%. Israel however is a bright spot and has grown +145% on the crop year and has surpassed Jordan as the region's 4th largest market.

With holiday needs covered, Western European markets took a significant breather in November. The region had been growing at a +31% rate at the end of October and that growth was entirely erased in November with the region’s growth rate now at -1%. Europe’s largest market, Spain, is still up +18% on the crop year, but other major EU markets are now down, including what has been the region’s #2 market The Netherlands (-33%), and #3 Germany (-9%). Italy, meanwhile, was the only Western European market that imported more almonds in November than it did a year ago, and its +17% growth rate on the crop year has Italy currently ranked as the EU’s second largest market surpassing Germany and the Netherlands in the process. The broad regional slowdown we saw in November was largely expected with holiday needs covered. Supply chains will continue to rebalance as production needs shift post holiday and we would expect some fluctuations within specific markets as that happens.

Market Analysis

The October Position Report was taken as a largely neutral or non-event as reflective of almond commodity prices that were generally flat through the remainder of the month of November. Prices had begun to elevate for Inshell and large kernel varieties as India began resupplying and the Middle East looks to cover Ramadan needs. Other buyers have remained on the sidelines to begin December awaiting the November Position Report and anticipating the Almond Conference which kicked off December 10th in Sacramento.

The latest Position Report numbers are unlikely to dissuade those entrenched in their particular market perspective. Handlers concerned about a short crop are not going to see the updated receipt numbers as evidence to the contrary. Meanwhile, November’s shipment numbers showing a sharp decline over last November are not going to quiet those suggesting waning demand in the face of commodity prices that have recovered ground this year. Instead, they will interpret the figures as an ‘I told you so.’

But there are counter arguments to both perspectives. Some will suggest that lagging receipts is more a reflection of delayed harvest and processing than of a short supply. The issue of course is that if a delay in harvest processing is the primary cause of lagging receipts, receipt figures are not likely to reflect this reality December when traditionally smaller and mid sized facilities end their season as these operations will in turn continue to process further into the month in an effort to catch up, thus elevating receipt figures. During November, processors were largely operating at capacity as it were. We continue to forecast a crop yield around 2.7 billion pounds and others we've talked to seem to be holding firm on their personal projections as well. Wherever the crop size will eventually fall, December will be much more illuminating. As of now, neither side of the expectations tug-of-war has gained much ground.

Shipment figures are also misleading. November 2024 was exceptionally large, setting a historical record for any November volume in a year where net shipments declined -1.69%. Discounting last year’s anomaly, 220 million pounds shipping during this November represents the average shipment volume of the next three most recent crop years indicating that purchasing volume was in line with recent historical ranges. Stable commodity prices through the month would act as a counter narrative and suggest that buyers may not be as price sensitive as they might want handlers to think.

Either way, what has emerged is quite an interesting market. Broadly speaking, buyers have been in a pattern of hand to mouth purchasing as they entrench their belief of a larger crop and remain skeptical of price trajectory. But the widespread hand to mouth approach doesn't afford a buyer much time to sit aside the market, and as seasonal needs oscillate between global markets, there consistently remains markets that are in need of coverage. This has supported Handlers' cautious approach who have been reluctant to offer extended coverage or discount prices to accelerate demand while concerns of supply shortages remain, for when you NEED something, you’re not in a position to negotiate or be patient.

As we look ahead, the hand to mouth buying patterns are going to bring buyers to the table in service of Lunar New Year, and Ramadan. India is rebalancing post Diwali and has shown they are in need of additional coverage. Meanwhile, Western Europe is in the process of rebalancing as well. With some markets better forward-covered than others there may be some shipment volatility within individual markets headed into the New Year.

Commodity prices immediately after the publication of the Position Report have remained stable. As we continue into December, we're expecting the hand to mouth buying to support relatively stable prices. December’s Report should bring some additional clarity and has the potential to significantly impact markets.