March 2025 Almond Market Report

California almond handlers shipped 221 million pounds in March per March’s Position Report. This is -6.6% behind last March. On the crop year, handlers have shipped -1.58% less this year than last.

Handlers added about 20 million pounds in receipts in March as the few remaining stockpiles continue to trickle in. Overall supply, accounting for the tight carryforward to begin the year, is off -1.24% YoY. Total commitments and uncommitted inventory levels are effectively on par with levels seen a year ago.

New commitments in March exceeded 217 million pounds, nearing a 5-year high for March. The pace of buying during the month of March was +19.8% higher than a year ago.

Water Outlook

According to SFGate, nearly all of California’s reservoirs are fuller than they were a year ago. All of California’s major reservoirs are at or above their historical average for this time of year, a reality that water regulators attribute to a third consecutive year of average to above average rainfall for much of California.

On April 1st the state conducted its annual snow survey of the Sierra and Cascade snowpack. The snowpack feeds reservoirs with spring and summer snowmelt. Per the LA Times, the survey found the state near average at 96% of normal across the survey area. This is the first time in nearly 25 years that the state has had three consecutive years meeting or exceeding average snowpack.

The wet weather prompted the Department of Water Resources to increase its water allocation forecast to 40%, up from 35%. This is welcome news for those that rely on surface water deliveries from the department. Unfortunately, the vast majority of the San Joaquin Valley, which includes the southern growing region and large portions of the central growing region, are still experiencing some degree of drought according to U.S. Drought Monitor. This is going to continue to stress farmers who rely on groundwater for irrigation as SGMA regulations continue to constrain access to these water sources.

Markets Around the World

China accelerated its shift away from sourcing California almonds directly. Imports are off -49% and Chinese buyers failed to import a single pound of inshell product in March. As the US and China ratchet up trade tensions, imports directly to Chinese importers should only continue to fall.

India imported nearly 40 million pounds in March. This was over +16 million pounds more than a year ago. This accelerated pace had been expected with our sales team reporting significant demand in our February Market Report. On the year India is off -9%, but should continue to close that gap with on-hand inventories remaining below optimal levels and buyers needing to replenish inventories.

Southeast Asian countries continue to see growth. The region is up +29% on the year with Vietnam growing at a rate of +37% as the region’s largest importer. With the US and China escalating their trade standoff, the region could see additional volume being routed through its processing facilities if capacity allows.

Western Europe imported -15.6% less during the month of March than it did a year ago. Some of this slow down may have resulted in the threat from the EU to impose reciprocal tariffs on US goods which included almonds. With these threats on pause for 90 days, buyers may look to take advantage to resupply. Our partners on the ground suggest that snacking habits are projected to increase, so adding inventory before any additional taxes are levied may be a wise move. As it stands, Spain, the largest European importer of California almonds is off -18% on the year. This time last year Germany was the number two importer, but after importing -22% less this year it has fallen to fourth with the Netherlands (+24% YoY) and Italy (+6% YoY) surpassing it.

The Middle East took a breather from its strong growth pace importing -23.1% fewer almonds during the month of March than it did a year ago. Some of this softening may also have been in reaction to the uncertainties of global trade circumstances, but Ramadan may also have contributed to restrain buying activity as well. The region as a whole is still showing strong growth figures on the year however and almond shipments remain up +14% on net. Turkey is up +35% on the year and has already imported +20 million pounds more than it had this time last year. Saudi Arabia (+42% YoY) and Jordan (+39% YoY) also continue to hold strong growth figures on the year. The UAE, as the region’s largest importer, is off a modest -3% YoY. Our sales team indicates that consumption through Ramadan remained strong and buyers have returned after the holiday looking to refill inventories. We're expecting the Middle East to continue its growth pace in April.

What Emerging Markets Tell Us

Latin America as a region is up +41% on the crop year with nearly every market in the region seeing growth. Argentina is up +113% YoY, Costa Rica is up +131% YoY, Peru is up +52% YoY and the region's largest market, Chile, is up +67% YoY. In South/Central Asia markets like Bangladesh (+265% YoY), Kazakhstan (+265% YoY), and Pakistan (+131% YoY) have more than doubled their imports. Elsewhere, countries like Latvia (+166% YoY), Ukraine (+162% YoY), and Egypt (+283% YoY) have also posted extraordinary growth rates. Why might this be?

Almonds are cheap, let's start there. The emerging markets we highlighted are not ones generally known for large wealthy consumer classes and are going to be more price driven. Almonds are affordable. Price levels have only begun to return to a breakeven level for growers, so historically speaking almonds are indeed cheap. But in comparison to other nuts, they are also priced favorably. This encourages producers to continue to source almonds in favor of other nuts where an alternative could substitute and makes almonds attractive to a growing global middle class.

It also highlights growing global consumption trends towards health conscious consumption. A recent analysis released by Research and Markets as reported on by Global Newswire highlights almond’s positing as a nutrient dense and versatile ingredient that can deliver across many global consumer trends. Through 2030 the report is projecting nearly 6% growth for almonds across all formats.

Tariffs

After briefly allowing widespread tariffs to take effect, the US has paused most of its latest round of threatened tariffs. In turn, trading partners like the EU have also paused their threatened retaliation. While the situation remains dynamic, this is welcome news for the almond market as sources including The Guardian were reporting that almonds were included in EU reciprocal tariffs. Even governor Gavin Newsom was campaigning for an exemption on almonds before the two sides paused their tariff implementations indicating that almonds were among the targeted goods. As of writing, trade tensions between the US and China however continue to escalate which will continue to suppress almond shipments destined for China.

Market Assessment

The supply reality has been clear for some time. Buyers had been patient through the bloom hoping to find some relief in future yields. Globally, inventories are low and buyers and buying hand-to-mouth. Early reports from growers however do not project a future bumper crop. With the Subjective Forecast is still a month away, little is likely to change regarding supply expectations barring some unforeseen event.

The realities of strong global demand for almonds has also been apparent for some time and shipment trends continue to showcase this. While net shipments are off -1.58% YoY, total available supply is also off -1.24% YoY. At the current rate of shipments, handlers would need to ship about 210 million pounds per month to target a 500 million pound carry forward. This would amount to a stock-to-use ratio below 19%. For perspective, supply is balanced when stock-to-use is 20%. This means current supplies are not sufficient to support any shipment growth and supplies are going to be tight through the transition.

While much remains the same on the supply side of the equation, the demand side could begin to look different as markets and buyers react to the current global trade situation. As of writing, the US and China remain locked in an aggressive tariff standoff while the US and many of its other trading partners have agreed to a pause in reciprocal tariffs. The economic environment remains quite dynamic, but the current situations create some interesting circumstances.

For instance, while Chinese buyers have already been shifting their supply chains for almonds away from direct imports from California, these shifts are likely to be accelerated. This will fuel further growth in processing markets in Southeast Asia as well as increase competition for limited raw product from other almond growing regions.

If you’re a buyer in one of the Asian processing markets or in the EU, you also need to balance the risk of reciprocal tariffs, that are on pause at the moment, and how likely they may yet come to pass. If you’re inclined to believe that tariffs are coming, the current 90 day reprieve may be viewed as an opportunity to get ahead of a future tax. If that’s the case, buyers could be looking to accelerate short term purchases as a hedge.

If you’re considering sources outside of the US, you’re likely to find even more competition from Chinese buyers. While shipments of almonds from California to China were already on the decline, China and the US have become embroiled in an aggressive trade standoff and shipments direct from California are likely to fall significantly rapidly increasing the competition for almonds sourced outside of the US.

The US and India on the other hand have been much more amicable. As this report was being written news broke that India was the first nation to enter trade negotiations with the US after it paused tariffs. The two nations are pushing for a partial agreement to stave off tariffs in the short term with the intent to foster a more comprehensive deal before the end of 2025. Positive relations between the US and the largest importer of almonds, even without much detail, is welcome news.

The global trade environment remains dynamic, but the fact remains that California almonds supplies remain constrained. Prompt shipments between now and the transition are likely to command a premium as handlers prepare for a tight transition with concerns for the upcoming crop year. Any pressures that push demand are going to be felt in what continues to be a bull market.