August 2025 Almond Market Report

The first Position Report of the new crop year indicates that the year began with 483.8 million pounds of almonds as carry-forward inventory. This volume was calculated by including the actual loss and exempt figure for the crop year that totaled 3.14%, which was significantly higher than the projected 2%. This reduced the carry forward projected in July. This resulted in California Handlers beginning the new crop year with -3.75% fewer pounds than a year ago. During August, handlers added 259 million pounds of new crop receipts. This is -10.71% below the volume handlers received in August a year ago.

The report also noted that the Almond Board conducted a survey of handlers representing nearly 67% of the 2024/25 handle. The survey aimed to understand the edible portion of the carry forward figure. The survey results projected that a significant portion of the inventory was inedible material and calculated that the edible on-hand inventory to be near 447 million pounds. This helps illustrate that the supply scenario that handlers experienced through the transition was further constrained for many of the most common specifications during this time.

Harvest Conditions

Harvest began on time, but receipts have been slower to arrive to handlers. August did bring a more active weather pattern to California that resulted in often cooler than average temperatures and at times rain and thunderstorm activity to valley orchards. This weather pattern has persisted into the early portions of September. The cooler temperatures and added moisture have delayed some harvesting operations, particularly where additional drying time in the orchard was required. While unsettled weather is more common in September than in August, large scale precipitation events aren’t typical for this time of year so any rain fall is likely to be localized and infrequent keeping any further disruptions relatively modest.

Export Markets

Shipments to India declined -41% YoY in August. The short inventory scenario and delays in harvest certainly contributed to the slower import volume in August. The local industry had experienced some pressure from earlier shipment volumes, but insiders had anticipated significantly higher shipment volumes in August to cover Diwali demands. This suggests that India may need to seek additional coverage in the short term. Additionally India’s government announced in August plans to reclassify many consumer goods, including almonds, to reduce tax burdens. Once in effect, the tax changes are likely to increase demand with the festive season on the horizon. As handlers process more crop receipts and local Indian consumers begin to take advantage of the new tax scenarios we expect to see shipments of almonds begin to pick up to India.

Shipments to Western Europe were up +10% YoY in August. Spain saw the largest volume increase importing more that +3.6 million pounds more than it did a year ago (+36%). The local Spanish harvest is expected to be lighter than last year which may help support stronger demand for California almonds heading into the fall. Elsewhere in Europe, The Netherlands, Italy and France all saw increases over their import volumes from a year ago, while Germany and the UK saw declines. Trading in the region continues to be hand-to-mouth and our sales team has shared that local industry contacts are noticing inventory shortages in local markets in spite of the increased importation rates seen in August. This suggests that local markets will continue to need near term coverage.

Major Middle Eastern markets saw significant growth YoY with the region seeing imports surge +68% YoY. The UAE more than doubled their import volume with more than 11.5 million pounds imported in August. Saudi Arabia grew +38% and Turkey grew +2%. Local buyers have been cautious and buying hand-to-mouth, but our sales team reports elevated interest within the region as well as North African markets with an early Ramadan season on the horizon.

Southeast Asia saw a +2% increase YoY as a region, but individual markets demonstrated significant volatility. Indonesia as an example grew +727% importing nearly 1.5 million pounds in August, while Vietnam declined -27%. As growing value-add markets some volatility in import volume is to be expected, but we’re projecting further maturation of markets in this region as world supply chains continue to evolve.

Market Conditions

Almonds prices saw sustained price increases across all varieties and specifications during August with many specifications seeing increases of +$0.50 or more per pound. Prices have only continued to rise in September.

Supply has been a primary factor in the recent price increases. A carry-forward volume of 483.8 million pounds with annual shipments in 2024/25 exceeding 2.646 billion pounds represents a stock-to-use ratio of 18.3%. Historically a 20% ratio has signaled a balanced inventory. This suggests that inventory has been under pressure through the transition.

Replenishment of that supply hasn’t fully kept up. Unseasonably cooler and wetter weather have caused some delays in what was an on-time harvest. Reports from hulling and shelling operations have also suggested that early field run receipts have underwhelmed. This has put continued pressure on handler’s inventories and made sellers especially cautious with the growing possibility of a shorter than expected yield.

On the supply side domestic markets has been experiencing a protracted slow down, and August was the smallest shipment month since the 2015/16 crop year. Meanwhile most export markets have been operating hand to mouth, and have continued to be the primary driver of demand. Continued strong export demand has brought added pressure to those needing immediate coverage. Finding shorter inventories and cautious sellers, buyers have been having to accept added premiums, thus driving up prices.

Export markets remain in need of additional coverage with holiday festivities on the horizon. India is likely to be a major driver of demand. Pending changes to the taxation system is likely to encourage processors and consumers alike to accelerate their buying. Interest from the Middle East and Europe are also likely to materialize ahead of their respective holiday seasons.

Don’t let a light shipment month in August fool you. Supply constraints were the culprit, not sluggish demand. New contracts in August were right in line with historical buying patterns in spite of the increases in prices throughout August. This is a clear hallmark of continued interest. It should also be noted that almonds remain a relatively inexpensive ingredient with many other nuts, near all time highs.

Crop receipts will be the biggest variable to consider as harvest unfolds. The industry is already operating on -3.75% fewer pounds to start the crop year in a tight supply scenario. Any additional pressure on the supply side that materializes will only continue to push prices higher. Early reports have many handlers proceeding with caution expecting that yields may come in below forecast. Until we get a clearer picture of harvest, the best we can do is speculate; but, with many markets in need of forward coverage, buyer may find more upward pressure in the near term regardless.