December 12, 2017
November 2017 Position Report
The Almond Board released its monthly shipment report today December 12, 2017.
The November 2017 shipments were another record 228.46 Million lbs., up 21.8 % over November 2016 shipments of 187.51 Million lbs. The year to date shipments of 834.10 Million in comparison to last year of 785.64 Million lbs. have now exceeded last year’s shipments up 4.97%
Both domestic and export shipments were record months for November with domestic shipments of 61.12 million pounds up 17% over LY and export shipments of 167.34 million pounds up 23.7% over LY.
The quality of this year’s crop remains a challenge (NOW and Doubles) as we process to meet the high quality demand of our customers. Record shipments continue to meet demand for almonds worldwide. These combined will put pressure on market levels and supply of quality almonds.
Year to date shipments summary
US Market remains stable to firming. We expect positive growth to continue.
North America Reflecting positive shipment increases to Mexico up 7% while Canadais off -3%. This will turn around and be caught up by the end of the December.
Asia Pacifica China/ Vietnam (-8 % & -25%) while the South/Central Asia reboundedstrongly up 25% along with Australia + 43%.
Europe Belgium, Greece, Sweden & Bulgaria shipments are still down year to date,while all the other 18 countries grew to make up the difference. For YTD Spain is now up 3%and Germany continues to show strength up 20% YTD
Middle East UAE still up 13% YTD.
Commitment numbers were at 660 Million lbs. up (+20.0%) over last year . This is reflective that December will be another strong shipment month.
Crop & Quality
Total receipts for November were 464 million lbs. and we are now at 1,993 Billion lbs. received for the year in comparison to 1,930 Billion lbs. same time last year. It is starting to look as though the crop estimate of 2.25 Billion lbs. will be reached. Insect damage is higher across all growing regions. We expect total Loss and Exempt to be over 3%, bringing the total marketable supply closer to last year’s.
With the continued challenge of the high serious, stick tights & doubles, pressure will remain on the STD 5% and whole and broken prices. This will keep pricing stable to firming for Inshell and all other kernel grades through the bloom period. Given the favorable demand outlook and a manageable supply we see a healthy firm market. Bloom period will be the most likely next market movement period.